ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE PUBLISHED FOR EVERYBODY ROUND THE EARTH

Worksheet 1

1. Questions to be answered individually or in groups

a) What is a scenario? What makes climate scenarios different from weather forecasts?

b) All the scenarios used by scientists in climate modeling imply that even if we freeze on today's levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the air temperature will nevertheless continue to rise over the next century and the sea level will rise over the next millennium. Why is this so?

2. Find pros and cons

Higher temperatures may lead to more frequent and more violent showers. This may, for instance, have implications for growing tomatoes. Tomatoes are vulnerable to hail and flood and need an even distribution of rain and Sun in order to grow. So higher temperatures are likely to negatively affect tomato farmers as their crop yields will be lower. Higher temperatures will also affect us, as we will have to pay more for our tomatoes.

The text describes how climate change may affect tomato crops, the farmer growing tomatoes, and us. Such changes may also affect our life. For instance sports events or festivals may be cancelled because of the weather.

1. tomatos
(photo: www.letsgroworganic.co.uk)

Copy this table and write down how each of the changes in climate will affect your life. Are the consequences for you positive or negative? Not all the boxes need to be filled, there may be climate changes that are ONLY positive or ONLY negative for you.

3. Climate scenarios and CO2 emissions

Study the diagram and have another look at the text on "Future emissions and climate change" and make a note of the different IPCC scenarios. The diagram shows how carbon dioxide emissions may change in the future given each of the four scenarios.

2. How CO₂ emissions might develop over the coming century, according to four different scenarios. Adapted from IPCC.

Why do you think carbon dioxide emissions will increase so much in scenario A2? Why will emissions go down after the year 2050 in scenario A1? Why is B1 the scenario which gives the least carbon dioxide emissions?

About this page:

Authors: Ellen K. Henriksen and Camilla Schreiner - University of Oslo - Norway.
Scientific reviewer: Andreas Tjernshaugen - CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo) - Norway - 2004-01-20
Educational reviewer: Nina Arnesen - Marienlyst school in Oslo - Norway - 2004-03-10.
Last update: 2004-03-27.